Mondelez International (NASDAQ:$MDLZ) is high on Nestle’s (OTCPK:$NSRGY) list for a potential sale of its U.S. confectionery division. Nestle is currently weighing its options, with a decision expected to be finalized by year’s end. While Nestle intends to maintain ownership of its profitable international confectionery output, investors should brace for a domestic shift that could come at any time.
The U.S. confectionery market is highly competitive. While Nestle’s U.S. confectionery business represented nine-tenths of a billion dollars in sales in 2016, U.S. sweets producers Tootsie Roll (NYSE:$TR) and Hershey (NYSE:$HSY) garnered 4.4x and 3.0x more in sales, respectively.
Estimates expect Nestle to gain $3-to-4-billion in a potential U.S. sale.
Mondelez appears to be the most likely contender. Although Mondelez is currently saddled with a high level of debt (with a forecast $1.4 billion due by mid-2020), Mondelez appears to be shooting for growth in the U.S. candy business. Having previously purchased Cadbury, it looks like current CEO Irene Rosenfield — who is stepping down in November — wants to cap off her tenure with the potential deal.
Uncertainties surrounding Mondelez’s new CEO Dirk Van de Put mean that if Nestle were to sell to Mondelez, they better hustle before he takes the position.
The Hershey Company is another potential bidder, currently reigning over 44.1% of the U.S. chocolate market. If they were to purchase Nestle through a cash deal they would likely grow in terms of EBITDA by 12%. However, combining with Nestle’s 4.9% share of the U.S. market may incur an FTC challenge. Hershey’s recent emphasis on healthier foods is another concern, making a potential buyout of Nestle less palatable unless they were to sell for an extremely low price.
Mars is another potential buyer, and that company’s product line would likely synergize smoothly with that of Nestle. Like Hershey, though, Mars is also revamping its product image toward healthier options, a possible dealbreaker when looking to absorb Nestle’s sugary product line. Mars is also looking at purchasing animal-hospital chain VCA Inc. in early 2018 at $7.7-billion (while assuming $1.4-million in debt).
Tootsie Roll is another viable player, raking in $521-million in sales for 2016, while carrying relatively manageable amounts of debt. Its substantial EBITDA of $118 million in 2016, however, might inhibit its chances of an acquisition unless it was given an equity stake though a third party.
Outside of the U.S., Perfetti Van Melle is a rumored contender, with over $2.6-billion in sales (euros), and a product line, including Airheads and Mentos, that might synergize well with that of Nestle’s. Lindt & Sprungli are not likely prospects seeing as they focus primarily on premium chocolate.
Of all the possible companies to purchase Nestle, Mondelez, seems like the most suitable buyer. Although its already sizable position in the market leaves them vulnerable to FTC challenge if the acquisition were to go through, the potential benefits for growth and earnings in purchasing Nestle are clear. Until Nestle is sold, however, investors may do well to hold off trading in the short-term as Mondelez passes through its anticipated initial period of increased debt and decreased reinvestment incurred if it decides to go through with the acquisition.
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