It is not surprising that before an earnings season, every investor looks for stocks that can beat market expectation. This is because investors always try to position themselves ahead of time and look to tap stocks that are high quality in nature.
Yum China
YUMC
,
Chewy
CHWY
,
Phillips 66
PSX
,
Workday
WDAY
and
Sprinklr
CXM
are some stocks that are likely to deliver an earnings surprise in their upcoming release.
Why Is a Positive Earnings Surprise So Important?
Historically, stocks of companies with solid quarterly earnings (on a nominal basis) tank if they miss or merely meet market expectations. After all, a 20% earnings rise (though apparently looks good) doesn’t tell you if earnings growth has been exhibiting a decelerating trend.
Also, seasonal fluctuations come into play sometimes. If a company’s Q1 is seasonally weak and Q4 strong, then it is likely to report a sequential earnings decline. In such cases, growth rates are misleading while judging the true health of a company.
On the other hand, after much brainstorming and analysis of companies’ financials and initiatives, Wall Street analysts project earnings of companies. They in fact club their insights and a company’s guidance when deriving an earnings estimate.
Thus, outperforming that estimate is almost equivalent to beating the company’s own expectation as well as the market perception. And if the margin of earnings surprise is big, it typically drives the stock higher right after the release. Thus, more than anything else, an earnings surprise can push a stock higher.
How to Find Stocks that Can Beat?
Now, finding stocks that have the potential to beat on the bottom line may be investors’ dream but not an easy job. One way to do this is to look at the earnings surprise history of the company.
An impressive track in this regard generally acts as a catalyst in sending a stock higher. It indicates the company’s ability to surpass estimates. And investors generally believe that the company will apply the same secret sauce to execute yet another earning beat in its next release.
The Winning Strategy
In order to shortlist stocks that are likely to come up with an earnings surprise, we chose the following as our primary screening parameters.
Last EPS Surprise greater than or equal to 10%:
Stocks delivering positive surprise in the last quarter tend to surprise again.
Average EPS Surprise in the last four quarters greater than 20%:
We lifted the bar for outperformance slightly higher by setting the average earnings surprise for the last four quarters at 20%.
Average EPS Surprise in the last two quarters greater than 20%:
This points to a more consistent surprise history and makes the case for another surprise even stronger.
In addition, we place a few other criteria that push up the chance of a positive surprise.
Zacks Rank less than or equal to 2:
Only companies with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) rating can get through.
Earnings ESP
greater than zero:
A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of #1, 2 or 3 (Hold) for an earnings beat to happen, as per our proven model.
In order to zero in on those that have long-term growth potential and high trading liquidity we have added the following parameters too:
Next 3–5 Years Estimated EPS Growth (Per Year) greater than 10%:
Solid expected earnings growth exhibits the stock’s long-term growth prospects.
Average 20-day Volume greater than 100,000:
High trading volume implies that the stocks have adequate liquidity.
The criteria have narrowed down the universe from more than 7,700 stocks to five.
Here are all five stocks:
Yum China:
Yum China’s U.S. operations are based in Texas. The company operates both company-owned and franchised restaurants. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see
the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here
.
YUMC delivered an average earnings surprise of 263.39% in the last four quarters.
Chewy
: Chewy operates as an online pet retailer. The company offers pet products, which include dry and wet food, toys, mats, biscuits, vitamins and supplements. It has a Zacks Rank #2.
CHWY came up with an average earnings surprise of 82.59% in the last four quarters.
Phillips 66
: This Zacks Rank #2 company’s operations incorporate refining, midstream, marketing and specialties, and chemicals.
The four-quarter average earnings surprise of PSX is 28.05%.
Workday
: This Zacks Rank #2 company is a provider of enterprise-level software solutions for financial management and human resource domains.
The four-quarter average earnings surprise of WDAY is 7.32%.
Sprinklr
: Zacks Rank #2 Sprinklr provides a unified customer experience management platform for modern enterprises.
The four-quarter average earnings surprise of CXM is 102.78%.
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.
Disclosure: Officers, directors and/or employees of Zacks Investment Research may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material. An affiliated investment advisory firm may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material.
Disclosure: Performance information for Zacks’ portfolios and strategies are available at:
http://www.zacks.com/performance
.
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