Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock’s recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the ‘long’ context, investors will essentially be “buying high, but hoping to sell even higher.” And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock’s price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.
Even though momentum is a popular stock characteristic, it can be tough to define. Debate surrounding which are the best and worst metrics to focus on is lengthy, but the Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the
Zacks Style Scores
, helps address this issue for us.
Below, we take a look at
Dollar Tree (DLTR)
, a company that currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B. We also talk about price change and earnings estimate revisions, two of the main aspects of the Momentum Style Score.
It’s also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Dollar Tree currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.
You can see the current list of
Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>
Set to Beat the Market?
Let’s discuss some of the components of the Momentum Style Score for DLTR that show why this discount retailer shows promise as a solid momentum pick.
Looking at a stock’s short-term price activity is a great way to gauge if it has momentum, since this can reflect both the current interest in a stock and if buyers or sellers have the upper hand at the moment. It’s also helpful to compare a security to its industry; this can show investors the best companies in a particular area.
For DLTR, shares are up 0.36% over the past week while the Zacks Retail – Discount Stores industry is down 0.45% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 8.84% compares favorably with the industry’s 6.46% performance as well.
While any stock can see a spike in price, it takes a real winner to consistently outperform the market. Shares of Dollar Tree have increased 1.17% over the past quarter, and have gained 71.91% in the last year. On the other hand, the S&P 500 has only moved -11.49% and -6.21%, respectively.
Investors should also take note of DLTR’s average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. Right now, DLTR is averaging 1,836,812 shares for the last 20 days.
Earnings Outlook
The Zacks Momentum Style Score also takes into account trends in estimate revisions, in addition to price changes. Please note that estimate revision trends remain at the core of Zacks Rank as well. A nice path here can help show promise, and we have recently been seeing that with DLTR.
Over the past two months, 9 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost DLTR’s consensus estimate, increasing from $7.85 to $8.15 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 10 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.
Bottom Line
Taking into account all of these elements, it should come as no surprise that DLTR is a #1 (Strong Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of B. If you’ve been searching for a fresh pick that’s set to rise in the near-term, make sure to keep Dollar Tree on your short list.
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