On second-quarter 2020 earnings call, we expect investors to focus on BioNTech SE’s BNTX progress with BNT162 vaccine program against the COVID-19 infection as well as on other pipeline candidates.

The company’s average negative surprise is 5.16%. In the last reported quarter, BioNTech delivered an earnings surprise of 13.33%.

Shares of BioNTech have skyrocketed 145.4% so far this year compared with the industry’s increase of 6.6%.

Let’s see, how things are shaping up for the quarter to be reported.

Factors at Play

In absence of any marketed product in its portfolio, we expect investors’ focus to be on the company’s pipeline development during the second-quarter conference call. BioNTech has been in the spotlight following its efforts to develop a potential vaccine for preventing COVID-19 infection in partnership with pharma giant Pfizer, Inc. PFE. In the last reported quarter, the company assembled a global consortium of partners including Pfizer (everywhere other than China) and Fosun Pharma (China) to coordinate on developing a vaccine that can be made available to the public as quickly as possible across the globe.

Collaboration revenues are expected to have increased year over year in the to-be-reported quarter, especially after forging such partnerships.

Recently, BioNTech and Pfizer began clinical studies on four different vaccine candidates as part of their BNT162 mRNA-based vaccine program, Project Lightspeed, against SARS-CoV-2. The FDA granted a fast track designation to two (BNT162b1 and BNT162b) of the four experimental mRNA-based vaccines.

In July 2020, BioNTech and Pfizer began a large, global phase IIb/III safety and efficacy study on its coronavirus vaccine candidate, which will include up to 30,000 participants. Of the four experimental mRNA-based vaccines being evaluated under BioNTech’s BNT162 program, the companies selected nucleoside-modified messenger RNA (modRNA) candidate BNT162b2 (at a 30 µg dose level in a 2 dose regimen) as the lead candidate for the late-stage study.

The selection of the candidate and the dose level was done after a careful evaluation of the preclinical and clinical data from the phase I/II studies conducted in the United States and Germany, which was announced in July. Pfizer expects to file regulatory applications for the COVID-19 vaccine candidate by October. Eventually, if the same wins an approval this year, then Pfizer plans to manufacture up to 100 million doses by the year-end and potentially more than 1.3 billion doses by the end of 2021.

BioNTech announced agreements with several regulatory agencies to supply its vaccine for COVID-19 in the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan.

This apart, BioNTech’s pipeline boasts several prospective candidates in early to mid-stage studies for addressing various oncological indications with several data readouts expected later in 2020. We expect management to provide an update on the same during the upcoming earnings call.

All the analyses and developmental activities related to the company’s pipeline candidates are likely to have escalated its operating expense in the to-be-reported quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for BioNTech this time around. Th e combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that is not the case here as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: BioNTech has an Earnings ESP of -22.09%, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate (loss of 35 cents per share) and the Zacks Consensus Estimate (loss of 29 cents). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: BioNTech carries a Zacks Rank #3, currently. However, a negative ESP in the combination leaves surprise prediction inconclusive.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some biotech stocks with the right mix of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle:

bluebird bio, Inc. BLUE has an Earnings ESP of +69.81% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ICPT has an Earnings ESP of +10.76% and is presently Zacks #3 Ranked. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter earnings on Aug 10.

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