A month has gone by since the last earnings report for BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN). Shares have lost about 4.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is BioMarin due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let’s take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Q1 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates
BioMarin reported first-quarter 2022 adjusted earnings of 55 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 38 cents. However, earnings slid 1.8% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Total revenues were $519.4 million in the reported quarter, up 7% from the year-ago quarter’s level. The revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $505 million
Quarter in Detail
Product revenues (including Aldurazyme) were $505.5 million in the quarter, up 8.1% year over year. Product revenues from BioMarin’s marketed brands (excluding Aldurazyme) were up 15% year over year to $481.1 million on higher revenues from Vimzim, Naglazyme, Voxzogo and Brineura. Royalty and other revenues were $13.8 million in the quarter, down 24.2%.
Vimizim sales were up 16% year over year to $183 million while Naglazyme sales were up 19% to $128 million. The rise in sales was driven by the new patients initiating therapy as well as the favorable timing of orders in the Middle East and Europe. On the conference call, management said that both Naglazyme and Vimzim achieved record quarterly sales in first-quarter 2022.
Brineura generated sales of $36.2 million in the quarter, up 33% year over year, driven by 18% growth in new patients starting treatment in Europe.
The new drug Voxzogo, generated sales worth $19.7 million in the first quarter with the majority of sales coming from Europe. During the previous quarter, the drug generated $5.2 million of revenues. Per management, an estimated 284 children are being treated with Voxzogo, of which 83 reside in the United States.
Palynziq injection sales grossed $54.9 million in the quarter, up 2% year over year. Sales continued to be hurt by the pandemic impact as PKU clinics were not operating at full capacity.
In the PKU franchise, Kuvan revenues declined 16% to $59.3 million due to generic competition as the drug lost U.S. market exclusivity in late 2020.
Product revenues from Aldurazyme totaled $24.4 million, down 51% due to the unfavorable timing of product fulfillment to Sanofi’s subsidiary Genzyme.
2022 Guidance Revision
BioMarin now expects to record Voxzogo sales in the range of $100-$125 million in 2022, up from the previously affirmed guidance of $90-$115 million. On the conference call, management said that it expects Voxzogo to be a meaningful contributor to BMRN’s total revenues. BMRN expects robust prescription demand to continue driving the drug’s growth, including approval in the new markets.
Apart from Voxzogo sales, BioMarin maintained its previously issued guidance for 2022. BMRN reiterated total 2022 revenues in the range of $2.05-$2.15 billion, indicating growth of 14% at the midpoint.
Vimizim sales are expected in the range of $650-$700 million in 2022. Kuvan sales are anticipated in the range of $225-$250 million. Palynziq sales are expected in the range of $280-$310 million. Naglazyme sales are expected between $400 million and $440 million. Brineura sales are expected within $145-$160 million. BioMarin expects Roctavian to be a modest contributor to its current-year revenues.
BioMarin expects adjusted net income in the range of $350-$390 million, indicating more than 50% growth from the 2021 actuals.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted -35.33% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, BioMarin has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a C. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren’t focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, BioMarin has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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