Analysts Continue to Question Chipotle Operations Amidst Norovirus Outbreak

Norovirus outbreak

Just last week, reports of Norovirus outbreak at a restaurant in Sterling, Virginia and mice in a Dallas eatery depressed Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:$CMG) shares by nearly 13% of their value last week.

Additionally, analysts have recently highlighted concerns pertaining menu rate hikes, questioning whether or not it is a sustainable method to cover increasing costs. As a result, cuts to target share prices by analysts have further throttled Chipotle share prices on Monday.

Dropping to its lowest intraday levels since April 2013 of $336.35, shares of Chipotle sit at $339.98 at market close on Monday, July 24th.

The recent volatility in its stock exposes Chipotle’s susceptibility to these health issues, and its incompetence in dealing with them. This is alluded by a sequence of food safety failures that arose in late 2015, linking the food chain to E. Coli, Salmonella, and Norovirus outbreaks that affected hundreds across the country.

Prior to these issues, Chipotle’s stock had been close to a share price of $750.00.

Downgrading his share price by $190 to $350 per share, Tuna Amobi, a CFRA Research analyst, cut his 12-month price target by more than a third on Monday. As a result, Amobi also downgraded Chipotle shares from a “buy” to a “hold” rating, reflecting his negative sentiment on the company. In response to the recent Norovirus and rodent headlines, Amobi has also cut 2017 earnings per share estimates by 46 cents to $8, and decreased his 2018 price outlook by 25 cents to $11.68.

“We infer major setbacks to (Chipotle’s) ongoing recovery efforts after (2015) health-related concerns on virus outbreaks at several locations that precipitated a steep and protracted downturn in customer traffic,” Amobi explained.

Jason West, an analyst at Credit Suisse seems to have also lost confidence in Chipotle, cutting his price target by $100 from $425 to $325.

“We believe the recent negative headlines may delay price increases,” West explained. We now assume no additional menu pricing in 2018,” before explaining that ongoing complications could also hinder the opening of more stores, ultimately slowing down growth.

The Loudoun County Health Department reported on Monday that over 135 individuals became ill after eating at the Chipotle restaurant in Sterling, Virginia between July 13th and 16th. Further confirming the association, officials detailed that two of the diners tested positive with the same strain of Norovirus.

Dr. David Goodfriend, director of the county’s health department noted that “the specific source of the Norovirus has not yet been identified.”

There was a brief close down of the affected Chipotle restaurant last week to allow time for the completion of a deep-clean. Reopening last Wednesday, no additional illnesses have been reported.

As the leading cause of illness from contaminated food items in the United States, Norovirus is worrisome due to its ability to spread from person to person through all forms of interaction. This also includes contraction through food prepared by any infected individuals.

Analysts are in high anticipation, as Chipotle is set to report quarterly earning results once markets close on Tuesday.

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