Wrapping up its first official launch month of the Model 3, electric-car giant Tesla (NASDAQ:$TSLA) expects incoming sales to soar. Additionally, the company is speculating that there a mass-market transition to electric vehicles is in the making. Is this too optimistic?

First and foremost, CEO Elon Musk himself indicated that the initial production ramp-up would be a “production hell”. Essentially, the first few months will include very low deliverables, as Tesla’s production follows an S-curve. In an ambiguous tweet, Musk eluded to how Tesla would either produce or deliver the initial 100 Model 3 units in August, and increase to over 1,500 in September.

Production Plans

At this date, Tesla produces its Model S and X at a combined annualized run-rate of just over 100,000 units. By next year, the company projects to increase that number to 500,000. Before the end of 2017, following the S curve mentality previous mentioned, Tesla expects to produce over 5,000 units of the Model 3 by the end of the year. By “some point in 2018”, Tesla strives to hit a weekly production rate of the Model 3 to reach 10,000 vehicles.

Revenue Forecast: 2018 Model 3

Musk speculates the Model 3 will sell at an average price of about $50,000. Completing the math, if the company were to produce 320,000 anticipated units, that would equate to about $16 billion of revenue.

Adding that number to revenues generated by Model S and X, around $12.6 billion, Tesla’s total automotive revenue in 2018 would be $28.6 billion. Finally, adding that number to Tesla’s expected revenue from Tesla’s energy and services segments, Tesla’s total revenue could surpass a whopping $30 billion. This triples its current trailing 12 month revenue of $10.07 billion.

Of course, this projection is under the presumption that everything goes according to plan. Tesla’s aggressive production plan, if anything, poses red flags for skeptics. But one thing is for sure: Tesla’s growth plans are bigger than anything we expected.

Featured Image: twitter