For the past few days, Tesla’s (NASDAQ:$TSLA) shares have taken quite a fall. On Wednesday, July 5, 2017, the company’s stock fell enough to call for an official “correction”. During this time, the stock saw a decrease of around 7.2% to its lowest closing level since May 26. The fall put the stock around 14.7% below the record close of $383.45 on June 23. This gave a “correction” title to the stock as many investors and traders believe that a correction is characterized by a fall of around 10% to 20% from a significant peak in price. A bear market is characterized by a fall of around 20% or more from a significant peak in price.
The decrease in price was partially due to Goldman Sachs (NYSE:$GS) analyst David Tamberrino cutting down the price target to $180, noting that the deliveries of the Model S and Model X vehicles may be plateauing. Tamberrino also believes that the Model 3 may not meet its production goals which could cause the stock to tumble even more and lower gross margins. The observation came after Tesla’s report on Monday that the company delivered around 47,100 vehicles for the first half of 2017 — the lower end of the expected 47,000 to 50,000 vehicles.
Despite recent shortcomings however, analyst Ben Kallo at investment firm Baird (traded privately) believes that the fall won’t last for long once investors shift their focus to the scheduled introduction of Model 3 in late July. However, Kallo also noted the falling stocks and expressed the same as Tamberrino regarding concerns over the vehicle deliveries. Kallo noted that concerns could also arise over inventory buildup as Tesla made about 3,700 more vehicles than it delivered in the second quarter of 2017.
Still, Kallo retained a bullish view on Tesla’s stock. He argued that Tesla’s vehicle deliveries could have been affected by issues surrounding battery pack production which was just resolved last month (June).
“The release of [second-quarter] deliveries data was another de-risking event for the stock, and we expect shares to trade higher as investors are increasingly able to focus on the Model 3,” Kallo addressed in a note to his clients. “We believe investors will look forward to the Model 3 introduction on July 28, and the stock could make new highs as Model 3 production ramps.”
The Model 3 has been highly anticipated because unlike the Model S and Model X, the Model 3 has been priced for the general public at around $35,000. That’s about half the price of a Model S and/or Model X. Tesla expects about 100 Model 3s to be produced in August, about 1,500 Model 3s to be produced in September, and by December, 20,000 Model 3s are expected to be produced per month.
Besides the Model 3 production and deliveries, Kallo notes that there are several other potential events over the next year or so that could raise the stock prices. These events include the expansion of gross margin, updates on the construction of Tesla’s battery-producing gigafactories, growth of Tesla’s sustainable fuel business, and the potential anticipation of the Model Y, an electrically powered semi truck, Kallo said.
While it has experienced a few poor trading days, Tesla’s stock has risen about 53% year to date. This is quite significant compared to General Motors Company’s (TSE:$GMM.U) year to date rise of 0.5% and the 8.7% year to date rise of the S&P 500 Index (INDEXCBOE:$.INX) (NASDAQ:$SPX). Investors should also take note that Tesla have risen from its last official correction earlier this year. The electric vehicle company saw its stock fall by 13% from the February 14 closing price of $280.98 to the March 10 closing price of $243.69. However, the current official correction marked by the 14.7% fall is higher than the one experienced earlier this year.
It seems that we won’t know which analyst has a better outlook on the stock until the Model 3 introduction and more production details are provided.
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