Amazon.com Inc.’s (NASDAQ:$AMZN) announcement of a $13.7B takeover of Whole Foods Market Inc (NASDAQ:$WFM) might be all, but done.
Karen Short, an analyst at Barclays has strong belief that Amazon’s offer will spur a bidding war for the health-conscious grocery chain. After evaluating the stock at equal weight for the past nine months, Short recently upgraded Whole Foods shares to overweight.
Typically, shares of companies that are to be bought out will garner an equal weight rating, as being acquired sets the ceiling for their potential upside. Short, with the belief of another interested company, raised her target fair value from $38 to $48, representing a 14.3% premium above Amazon’s $42 Bid.
As premarket trading on Monday show stock appreciation of 0.5% from the Friday closing price of $42.68, investors seem to acclaim Short’s thoughts.
Short argues that the Amazon – Whole Foods deal faces very little risk of falling through, which would mean a downside of just 1.6% at current trading values. However, in another aspect of the scenario, Short sees potential for Whole Foods to bid for as much as $57 a share, which would make for a 33.6% upside from current share prices.
Although Short sees very few companies that have the ability to outbid Amazon for Whole Foods, she believes that “many will do anything to either make this acquisition more costly…or just prevent the asset from landing in Amazon’s lap, because remember, retail strategic bidders would eliminate overhead at [Whole Foods] in the event of an acquisition, Amazon intends to let Whole Foods operate as is.”
Short believes that all retailers that sell food and are in competitive range with Amazon are potential bidders, “because we think most have too much to lose not to bid.”
As such, Short believes that potential bidders could consist of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:$WMT), Target Corp (NYSE:$TGT), and Kroger Co (NYSE:$KR).
With Wal-Mart, Target, and Kroger shares dropping 4.6%, 5.2%, and 9.2% respectively, it’s evident that investors believe a Whole Foods acquisition by Amazon could lead to increased competition.
Year to date, Amazon shares have gained 32%, while Whole Foods shares have jumped 39%. The SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector ETF (NYSEARCA:$XLP) has gained 8.2%, while the S&P 500 index (INDEXSP:$INX) has rallied 8.7% in the same period.
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