A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI). Shares have lost about 12.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Denali Therapeutics Inc. due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let’s take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Denali’s Q4 Earnings & Revenues Beat on Biogen Deal
Denali reported earnings of $1.91 per share in the fourth quarter of 2020 against a loss of 56 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was a loss of 55 cents per share.
Collaboration revenues came in at $316.8 million in the fourth quarter, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $88 million, primarily owing to $307.4 million of revenues recognized under the collaboration agreement with Biogen
The company earned collaboration revenues of $4.7 million in the year-ago quarter.
Research and development expenses were $54.7 million for the quarter under review compared with $51.5 million for the year-ago quarter. The increase was primarily due to higher personnel-related expenses, including stock-based compensation.
General and administrative expenses were $17.9 million, up from $10.9 million in the year-ago quarter due to an increase in personnel-related expenses, including stock-based compensation, primarily driven by higher headcount and additional equity award grants.
Other Updates
In January 2021, Denali announced that its phase Ib study of LRRK2 inhibitor, DNL151, in Parkinson’s disease was completed and met target engagement and pathway engagement goals. Denali and partner Biogen expect to initiate late-stage clinical development of DNL151 in Parkinson’s patients by 2021-end. Two clinical studies are planned — one in Parkinson’s patients who carry LRRK2 mutations and the other in Parkinson’s patients independent of mutation status.
In October 2020, Denali announced that its partner Sanofi submitted an investigational new drug (IND) application for DNL788 (SAR443820), a potent, selective and brain-penetrant small-molecule inhibitor of RIPK1 intended to treat patients with Alzheimer’s disease, ALS, multiple sclerosis (MS) and potentially other indications. Dosing in a healthy volunteer study was commenced in December 2020.
Meanwhile, DNL593 (frontotemporal dementia) and DNL919 (Alzheimer’s disease) have advanced into the IND-enabling stage. Consequently, Denali received an $8-million milestone payment from Takeda in January 2021 for DNL593 and expects to receive another $8-million milestone payment for DNL919 later in the quarter.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted 33.96% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Denali Therapeutics Inc. has a strong Growth Score of A, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren’t focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Denali Therapeutics Inc. has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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