Emergent BioSolutions Inc. EBS is scheduled to report second-quarter 2020 results on Jul 30, after the market closes.

The company’s surprise history has been mixed so far with earnings beating estimates twice in the trailing four quarters and missing the same in the remaining two. The average surprise is 52.77%. In the last reported quarter, Emergent delivered an earnings surprise of 150.00%.

Shares of Emergent have rallied 64.9% so far this year compared with the industry’s increase of 9.8%.

Let’s see, how things are shaping up for the quarter to be reported.

Factors at Play

Emergent’s revenues in the last reported quarter increased marginally due to a hike in revenues from contract development and manufacturing (CDMO) deals and contracts as well as grants revenues, a trend that most likely continued in the to-be-reported quarter as well.

To address the global COVID-19 outbreak, the company inked several CDMO deals with various companies to provide them with manufacturing services for helping produce their respective experimental vaccine candidates against the pandemic.

Earlier this month, Emergent expanded its five-year agreement to offer pharma giant Johnson & Johnson JNJ with CDMO services for supporting the large-scale drug substance manufacturing of the latter’s investigational COVID-19 vaccine candidate, Ad26.COV2-S. The deal is valued at around $480 million for the first two years.

Emergent signed similar such CDMO pacts with another pharma giant AstraZeneca and several other small biotechs, such as Novavax and Vaxart to help them manufacture their respective vaccine candidates to fight COVID-19.

The above-mentioned deals are likely to have driven Emergent’s CDMO deals and contracts and grants revenues in the second quarter. Moreover, if any of the above companies is able to successfully develop a vaccine for combating the deadly COVID-19, it will gain a huge boost. Investors will be keen to get an update on the same during the upcoming earnings call.

However, total product sales dipped in the first quarter due to lower revenues generated from the vaccines portfolio, a trend that most likely continued in the second quarter as well.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Emergent this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of a positive surprise. But that is not the case here as discussed below.

Earnings ESP: Emergent has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 53 cents per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Emergent sports a Zacks Rank #1, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, its 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some biotech stocks with the right mix of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. ACAD has an Earnings ESP of +8.12% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is scheduled to release earnings results on Aug 5.

Exact Sciences Corporation EXAS has an Earnings ESP of +6.69% and a Zacks Rank #2, currently. The company is scheduled to release earnings results on Jul 30.

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