Biotech major
Gilead Sciences Inc
.
GILD
is slated to report first-quarter 2022 results on Apr 28, after market close.
The company has a good track record, with earnings beating estimates in three of the last four quarters and missing in one, the average beat being 1.6%. In the last reported quarter, the company missed expectations by 54.90%.
Gilead Sciences, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Gilead Sciences, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart
|
Gilead Sciences, Inc. Quote
What Our Model Predicts
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Gilead this time around. The combination of a positive
Earnings ESP
and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our
Earnings ESP Filter
.
Earnings ESP
: Earnings ESP for Gilead is +5.69%, as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.77 and the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at $1.87.
Zacks Rank
: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Factors at Play
Gilead did not provide any guidance for the first quarter.
HIV franchise sales increased 7% in the fourth quarter to $4.5 billion, driven by higher demand for flagship HIV therapy Biktarvy and favorable pricing dynamics, which more than offset the decline in sales due to the loss of exclusivity of Truvada and Atripla. Descovy revenues in the fourth quarter were $473 million, up 9% sequentially, primarily as a result of favorable seasonal pricing and inventory dynamics as well as continued demand. However, management expects first-quarter revenues from this franchise to decline. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Biktarvy and Descovy is pegged at $2.1 billion and $427 million, respectively.
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) product sales decreased 7% to $393 million in the fourth quarter due to unfavorable changes in payer mix and fewer patient starts. The trend might have continued in the first quarter.
Veklury (remdesivir) sales, an antiviral treatment for COVID-19, contributed $1.4 billion to the top line in the fourth quarter, down 30%.
Given the surge in Omicron cases, sales of Veklury are likely to have increased or remained stable sequentially in the first quarter. Per the company, the volume of overall cases has meaningfully increased since the emergence of Omicron, and the total number of hospitalizations will increase as well. The FDA recently approved the sNDA filing for the use of Veklury in the outpatient setting for patients at high risk of disease progression.
Cell Therapy product sales, which include Yescarta (axicabtagene ciloleucel) and Tecartus (brexucabtagene autoleucel), came in at $239 million in the previous quarter, up 47%. Sales might have experienced a sequential increase, driven by label expansions of Yescarta. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Yescarta sales stands at $188 million.
Trodelvy (for breast cancer) sales came in $118 million in the fourth quarter, reflecting continued uptake in the second-line setting for the treatment of metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) in the United States and Europe as well as second-line metastatic urothelial cancer (UC) in the United States. The drug was added following the acquisition of Immunomedics by Gilead in 2020. Sales might have registered a sequential increase as demand is normalizing.
Operating expenses are likely to have increased due to higher investments in the oncology program.
Other Pipeline & Regulatory Updates
Apart from the regular top and bottom-line numbers, we expect investors to focus on key pipeline updates.
The FDA has lifted the partial clinical hold placed on studies evaluating its investigational agent magrolimab in combination with Vidaza. The FDA placed the hold in January 2022 due to an apparent imbalance in investigator-reported suspected unexpected serious adverse reactions (SUSARs) between study arms. With the hold removed, Gilead can resume enrollment in the studies evaluating magrolimab in combination with Vidaza in MDS and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in the United States.
Share Price Performance
Gilead’s stock has lost 14.2% in the year so far compared with the
industry
‘s decline of 18.4%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other drug/biotech stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.
Amgen
AMGN
has an Earnings ESP of +2.58% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see
the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here
.
Amgen topped earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters. Amgen delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.63%, on average.
Sanofi
SNY
has an Earnings ESP of +0.89% and a Zacks Rank #3. Sanofi boasts an excellent track record, having topped earnings estimates in the last four quarters. It pulled off a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.80%, on average.
AstraZeneca
AZN
has an Earnings ESP of +2.56% and a Zacks Rank #3. AstraZeneca has a good record, having topped earnings estimates in the three of the past four quarters. AZN pulled off a four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.22%, on average.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the
Zacks Earnings Calendar
.
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