Alibaba
(BABA) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Shares of this online retailer have returned -23.5% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s -5.3% change. The Zacks Internet – Commerce industry, to which Alibaba belongs, has lost 14.7% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company’s business prospects usually make its stock ‘trending’ and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Earnings Estimate Revisions
Rather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company’s earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors’ interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, Alibaba is expected to post earnings of $1.06 per share, indicating a change of -32.9% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -23.2% over the last 30 days.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $7.99 points to a change of -19.6% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed -4.3%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $7.43 indicates a change of -6.9% from what Alibaba is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +99.3%.
With an impressive
externally audited track record
, our proprietary stock rating tool — the Zacks Rank — is a more conclusive indicator of a stock’s near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other
factors related to earnings estimates
, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for Alibaba.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company’s forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth Forecast
While earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company’s financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn’t able to grow its revenues. After all, it’s nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it’s important to know a company’s potential revenue growth.
In the case of Alibaba, the consensus sales estimate of $30.76 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +7.6%. The $132.17 billion and $147.73 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +23.4% and +11.8%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
Alibaba reported revenues of $38.07 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +12.4%. EPS of $2.65 for the same period compares with $3.38 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $38.07 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -0.01%. The EPS surprise was +9.96%.
Over the last four quarters, Alibaba surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates just once over this period.
Valuation
Without considering a stock’s valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock’s future price performance, it’s crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company’s growth prospects.
Comparing the current value of a company’s valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an An is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Alibaba is graded A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers.
Click here
to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom Line
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it’s worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Alibaba. However, its Zacks Rank #4 does suggest that it may underperform the broader market in the near term.
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