This week marks a pivotal moment for both Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) and Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) as they prepare to unveil their Q1 earnings reports. The year 2024 has proven to be challenging for startup EV companies, with RIVN and LCID hitting new record lows earlier this year.

Wall Street analysts aren’t overly optimistic about Rivian stock as it heads into its Q1 earnings announcement. UBS, while upgrading the stock to “neutral” from “sell,” maintains a target price of $9, indicating a lack of expectation for immediate recovery despite a seemingly balanced risk-reward ratio post-crash.

Wolfe Research took a harsher stance, listing Rivian as a short idea for this earnings season, alongside Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which notably surged after its Q1 report despite missing revenue and earnings expectations.

Tesla has gained a reputation as a “short-seller killer,” consistently defying bearish predictions over the years, even following the Q1 earnings report.

Could Rivian emulate Tesla’s performance and leave short sellers in the dust with its Q1 earnings? This article delves into that question.

Before its earnings release, Rivian stock holds a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating from 24 analysts. While over 54% of analysts rate it as either a “Strong Buy” or a “Moderate Buy,” this figure has declined from nearly 70% three months ago.

Following its Q4 report, Rivian witnessed a stock crash, losing over a quarter of its market capitalization. This decline was fueled by the company’s projection of producing 57,000 vehicles in 2024, slightly below 2023 levels and well under Street estimates.

Despite the post-Q4 earnings target price reductions, Rivian’s current mean target price of $17.96 represents a substantial 78% upside from Friday’s closing price.

For Q1, analysts anticipate Rivian to report revenues of $1.17 billion, marking a nearly 77% year-over-year increase. However, the company is expected to post a per-share loss of $1.38, underscoring the continued struggle for profitability common among startup EV companies.

During the earnings call, investors will be keen on updates regarding: 2024 delivery guidance; reservations for the upcoming R2 model; capital requirements and potential fundraising plans.

Despite the challenges, Rivian remains relatively well-funded with cash and cash equivalents of $9.4 billion at the end of 2023. Its reasonable valuations and potential for a relief rally akin to Tesla’s post-Q1 report suggest an optimistic outlook for the stock following its Q1 earnings announcement.

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