We expect Translate Bio, Inc. TBIO to surpass expectations when it reports second-quarter 2020 results.

The company’s surprise history has been mixed so far with earnings beating estimates twice in the trailing four quarters and missing the same in the remaining two. The average surprise is a negative 1.42%. In the last reported quarter, Translate Bio delivered an earnings surprise of 45.45%.

Shares of Translate Bio have skyrocketed 142.4% in the year so far compared with the industry’s 4.9% decrease.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.

Factors to Note

In June 2020, Translate Bio and Sanofi Pasteur, the global vaccines business unit of French pharma giant Sanofi SNY, expanded their collaboration and license agreement. Following the completion of this deal, the companies will together develop novel mRNA vaccines aimed at broadly addressing all current and future infectious diseases. Previously, the collaboration focused on developing vaccines for up to five infectious disease pathogens. Translate Bio gets collaboration revenues from Sanofi, which it records as total revenues in its quarterly results.

Collaboration revenues are expected to have increased year over year in the to-be-reported quarter, especially after Translate Bio extended its contract with Sanofi Pasteur, last month.

In absence of any marketed product in its portfolio, we expect investors’ focus to be on the company’s pipeline development on the second-quarter conference call.

Currently, Translate Bio and Sanofi Pasteur are evaluating multiple COVID-19 vaccine candidates in pre-clinical stage for immunogenicity and neutralizing the antibody activity to support the lead candidate selection. Both plan to start a clinical study in the fourth quarter of 2020.

The companies are also developing an mRNA vaccine candidate against influenza in the pre-clinical stage with a clinical study expected to begin in mid-2021.

Meanwhile, Translate Bio is developing MRT5005 in a phase I/II study for the treatment of cystic fibrosis (CF). The company is advancing its ongoing discovery efforts focused on a next-generation CF program and additional pulmonary diseases. The early-stage analysis and all developmental activities related to the company’s pipeline candidates are likely to have escalated operating expense in the to-be-reported quarter.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Translate Bio this time around.  The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Translate Bio has an Earnings ESP of +7.69%, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate (loss of 38 cents per share) and the Zacks Consensus Estimate (loss of 41 cents).

Zacks Rank:  Translate Bio currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some biotech stocks with the right mix of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle:

Agenus Inc. AGEN has an Earnings ESP of +15.85% and a Zacks Rank of 2, currently.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. ACAD has an Earnings ESP of +8.12% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is scheduled to release earnings results on Aug 5.

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