Sellers still direct a hot housing market but fall cooling approaches

ZILLOW-Fall-Market

<br /> Sellers still direct a hot housing market but fall cooling approaches<br />

This Zillow Weekly Market Report includes housing market data as of the week ending Sept. 26

PR Newswire


SEATTLE

,

Oct. 2, 2020

/PRNewswire/ — Sellers still hold the reins of the U.S. housing market as prices reach record year-over-year gains and low inventory further erodes, according to the


Zillow Weekly Market Report



1

. However, tapering pending sales and minimal recent growth in list prices point to an overdue seasonal market slowdown that may finally be coming.


Pending sales slow as short time-on-market stays steady

  • Newly pending listings are up a sizable 22.2% year over year, but fell 4.6% month over month and 1.5% week over week. Though the pandemic pushed the buying season back and demand is still high, buyers’ scramble for houses seems to be calming somewhat.
  • As has been the case throughout much of August and September, houses typically stayed on the market for 13 days across the U.S. Listings’ median time on the market has grown shorter compared to last year since mid-May, and they now typically go pending 15 days sooner than during the same week in 2019.


Inventory continues downward spiral that began in late May

  • The long contraction in for-sale inventory continued for the 18th straight week, now standing at 35% below 2019 levels. This represents the largest year-over-year drop in total inventory in ZIllow’s recently launched weekly data series going back through 2019, and is consistent with a larger drop than any recorded in Zillow’s monthly inventory data back to 2013. Inventory is down 3.2% month over month.
  • New for-sale listings are down 9.5% year over year and down 6.9% since the previous month. In late August, a brief surge of new listings threatened to reach parity with 2019 levels, but that pace dropped off again in September, contributing to the ever-deepening drought of overall active listings.


Prices tower over 2019 as sellers’ market endures

  • Median sale price for the week of

    Aug. 15

    rose 9.3% year over year to

    $284,625

    , which is the highest yearly jump in price since at least the start of 2019. Median sale price was up 1.2% month over month, showing less aggressive price growth than the previous eight weeks.
  • Median list price rose to

    $345,000

    , 10.4% over last year’s figures and again the highest year-over-year increase in Zillow weekly data stretching through last year. However, the only slight monthly uptick of 0.1% could indicate that an overdue seasonal cooling of the market may finally be setting in.


Consumer confidence rises and unemployment claims fall

  • After two consecutive months of decline, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index


    jumped 15.5 points


    from August to September, the strongest month-over-month gain since

    April 2003

    . Overall confidence is still 23% below February levels.
  • New


    unemployment claims fell by 36,000


    last week but remained between 800,000 and 900,000 for the fifth straight week. Those collecting unemployment insurance through regular state programs fell by 980,000 to 11.8 million, which is the lowest level seen since March, but still far above the 1.7 million on unemployment at this time last year.



Metropolitan

Area*



Newly

Pending

Sales –

YoY



Newly

Pending

Sales –

WoW



Median

Days to

Pending



Total

For-

Sale

Listings

– YoY



New

For-

Sale

Listings

– YoY



New

For-

Sale

Listings

– WoW



Median

Sale

Price**



Median

Sale

Price –

YoY**


United States


22.2%


-1.5%


13


-35.0%


-9.5%


-2.4%


$284,625


9.3%


New York/Newark, NY/NJ


52.5%


-4.5%


31


-20.4%


0.2%


-1.8%


$448,750


4.2%


Los Angeles, CA


10.7%


-0.4%


12


-24.7%


4.3%


-5.0%


$719,625


10.1%


Chicago, IL


36.9%


-3.1%


12


-28.6%


-0.8%


-8.6%


$267,750


8.7%


Dallas-Fort Worth, TX


27.1%


-4.3%


23


-32.7%


-24.4%


-0.7%


$303,250


9.5%


Philadelphia, PA


36.8%


2.4%


8


-37.6%


-1.0%


-2.5%


$279,850


5.3%


Houston, TX


29.3%


-1.5%


16


-29.5%


-26.0%


-13.0%


$269,344


8.8%


Washington, DC


19.5%


2.1%


7


-34.8%


-7.6%


-11.9%


$451,525


7.8%


Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL


31.7%


-1.7%


26


-13.5%


6.1%


17.9%


$325,660


10.5%


Atlanta, GA


15.6%


-2.8%


14


-31.6%


-21.4%


-11.1%


$285,174


11.2%


Boston, MA


3.9%


-0.2%


8


-31.4%


-16.7%


-9.7%


$523,750


9.7%


San Francisco, CA


31.6%


0.5%


11


-6.4%


21.8%


-7.0%


$916,750


14.6%


Detroit, MI


39.8%


-3.6%


9


-38.8%


-19.0%


-10.6%


$227,025


14.5%


Riverside, CA


11.3%


-1.9%


9


-48.0%


-0.8%


-2.1%


$411,000


10.1%


Phoenix, AZ


24.1%


2.6%


11


-20.9%


3.9%


-7.4%


$323,438


12.6%


Seattle, WA


20.6%


0.4%


6


-31.9%


-6.9%


-2.2%


$529,686


9.4%


Minneapolis-


St. Paul, MN


35.8%


-2.1%


16


-27.4%


11.1%


-0.6%


$313,250


9.9%


San Diego, CA


19.9%


0.1%


9


-37.5%


-3.8%


-16.3%


$638,125


9.8%


St. Louis, MO


27.1%


8.5%


6


-38.8%


-8.8%


0.9%


$215,488


9.0%


Tampa, FL


25.9%


-2.7%


7


-35.5%


-10.6%


4.4%


$258,412


10.0%


Baltimore, MD


54.6%


-0.8%


12


-44.4%


0.4%


-6.9%


$318,390


2.1%


Denver, CO


19.6%


-4.3%


6


-35.2%


-0.6%


-16.4%


$461,875


6.5%


Pittsburgh, PA


0.7%


-0.8%


10


-27.8%


-8.9%


5.5%


$199,988


8.7%


Portland, OR


19.7%


-1.6%


7


-38.0%


-6.1%


15.3%


$442,750


8.8%


Charlotte, NC


32.3%


-3.3%


6


-44.3%


-19.1%


-5.2%


$286,562


9.2%


Sacramento, CA


9.8%


-0.7%


7


-44.3%


-4.6%


-10.6%


$460,438


9.2%


San Antonio, TX


80.1%


2.3%


26


-26.0%


-35.2%


-11.6%


$252,750


7.6%


Orlando, FL


14.3%


-1.6%


12


-17.5%


-8.9%


-12.7%


$286,375


9.8%


Cincinnati, OH


19.3%


-1.1%


4


-39.1%


-13.1%


-19.7%


$215,738


16.4%


Cleveland, OH


20.0%


1.3%


17


-40.7%


7.7%


9.2%


$173,100


6.7%


Kansas City, MO


14.9%


-0.1%


5


-44.0%


-5.9%


-7.3%


$256,975


11.1%


Las Vegas, NV


-12.1%


-1.6%


15


-22.4%


-6.0%


-8.2%


$306,625


0.0%


Columbus, OH


25.3%


-4.6%


4


-40.2%


-20.4%


-6.9%


$238,750


17.5%


Indianapolis, IN


-4.9%


-3.2%


5


-40.7%


5.0%


-9.1%


$221,875


10.7%


San Jose, CA


48.3%


-0.7%


15


-19.4%


61.4%


-6.6%


$1,129,875


9.8%


Austin, TX


35.4%


-3.5%


8


-37.2%


-22.1%


-21.6%


$351,617


9.7%


Virginia Beach, VA


22.9%


-0.6%


30


-39.8%


3.0%


-6.7%


$274,500


6.3%


Nashville, TN


5.3%


2.5%


34


-25.6%


-21.7%


5.2%


$317,750


5.9%


Providence, RI


49.3%


-0.6%


13


-38.8%


-3.3%


3.2%


$324,675


8.8%


Milwaukee, WI


10.0%


-2.5%


30


-5.6%


-0.8%


-8.2%


$206,875


4.7%


Jacksonville, FL


20.2%


-2.1%


13


-38.4%


-30.5%


-6.1%


$267,000


1.9%


Memphis, TN


14.7%


-2.7%


7


-46.3%


-6.9%


10.9%


$204,875


5.2%


Oklahoma City, OK


43.3%


-1.6%


9


-35.5%


-14.6%


-18.2%


$206,738


13.0%


Louisville, KY


5.3%


2.5%


6


-43.9%


-6.4%


0.1%


$216,875


8.9%


Hartford, CT


49.3%


-0.6%


9


-40.8%


2.0%


-11.7%


$263,125


11.1%


Richmond, VA


6


-40.4%


-11.0%


-4.2%


$282,938


6.1%


New Orleans, LA


10.0%


-2.5%


18


-43.9%


-19.7%


-6.8%


$231,188


5.9%


Buffalo, NY


20.2%


-2.1%


10


-37.5%


-11.9%


1.4%


$189,375


8.3%


Raleigh, NC


14.7%


-2.7%


5


-42.6%


-16.3%


-4.9%


$313,438


7.0%


Birmingham, AL


43.3%


-1.6%


7


-35.1%


7.8%


-1.5%


$220,412


6.2%


Salt Lake City, UT


6


-46.5%


-40.3%


-24.0%


$379,646


10.3%


*Table ordered by market size



**Sale price data as of the week ending

Sept. 26


1

The Zillow Weekly Market Reports are a weekly overview of the national and local real estate markets. The reports are compiled by Zillow Economic Research and data is aggregated from public sources and listing data on Zillow.com. New for-sale listings data reflect daily counts using a smoothed, seven-day trailing average. Total for-sale listings, newly pending sales, days to pending and median list price data reflect weekly counts using a smoothed, four-week trailing average. National newly pending sales trends are based upon aggregation of the 38 largest metro areas where historic pending listing data coverage is most statistically reliable, and excludes some metros due to upstream data coverage issues. For more information, visit

www.zillow.com/research/

.


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