These Are The Stocks That Amazon Will Dominate

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The “Death by Amazon” index is comprised of 54 retailers that are deemed as the most threatened by Amazon’s aggressive business model. The index hit a 4-year low this week, and is down more than 20 percent so far this year.

As a way to attract new users to their Prime subscription, considerable discounts were introduced for “Prime Day”. As a result, Amazon shares were trading slightly lower on Tuesday.
In light of Amazon’s acquisition of Whole Foods Market, Inc., (NASDAQ:$WFM)  food related companies have slipped even lower. However, a few retail stocks that possess the resources to fight back have gained back a little bit of ground.

Although Amazon’s (NASDAQ:$AMZN) stock slipped a little due to the massive discounts introduced for Prime day, the gains that its rivals are experiencing are temporary. Amazon’s resilient business model will still dominate in the long-term.

Despite these occasional dips however, Amazon is up 32% so far this year. Amazon’s success is further emphasized when analyzing the 40 percent drop in share value that its brick and mortar competitors such as Macy’s (NYSE:$M) and JCPenney (NYSE:$JCP) have suffered.

The index named “Death by Amazon” was created by Bespoke Investment Group, highlighting the major retail names that are most susceptible to fall in light of Amazon’s dominance. The index consisting of 54 companies is down more than 20 percent, hitting a new four-year low on Monday. This 20 percent slide would mean the group has lost more than $70 billion in market cap this year alone, while Amazon increased its own market cap by $120 billion.

Tuesday was interesting however, as shares for Macy’s, Kohl’s (NYSE:$KSS), Costco (NASDAQ:$COST), TJX (NYSE:$TJX), Kroger (NYSE:$KR), and Target (NYSE:$TGT) all slightly increased. Stores such as Rite-Aid (NYSE:$RAD) and Walgreen Boots Alliance (NASDAQ:$RAD) however, decreased in value.

As Amazon asserts dominance as an industry disrupter, and depressed many retail stocks, there are a few that have been able to persist. HSN (NASDAQ:$HSNI) is up 14 percent year to date, which is a result of being acquired by QVC (NASDAQ:$QVC). Although pressured by Amazon’s Whole Foods acquisition, Walmart (NYSE:$WMT) has gained about 6% so far this year, and has positioned itself well against Amazon through their purchase of Jet.com.

“I think [Wal-Mart] got a big bounce from that move. The Jet.com acquisition was taken as a sign the company was going to get serious about online. That was one of the reasons the stock rebounded,” explained Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke. “It pulled in a little, and it hasn’t regained its footing since the Whole Foods news was announced.”

Last month, Amazon took the grocery and retail shopping market by storm with their announcement of purchasing Whole Foods. With Amazon’s purchasing power, analysts are expecting sizable decreases in operational costs and cost of goods sold. Ultimately increasing profitability, Amazon could also have enough brand power to propel the Whole Foods 365 brand.

Hickey continues,”I think consumer loyalty towards brands is evaporating. … This isn’t because of Amazon for these companies specifically. Consumers don’t necessarily equate quality with these old style brands anymore.”

Additionally, rising costs of agricultural commodities have also given various cereal companies and food companies pricing issues. This further crunch in margins will move up the supply chain and affect profitability.

Hickey also says however, that the list of 54 companies could easily have been more if mall REITs were to be added, as they have also been hurt by online shopping.

However, Bespoke decided to create the index with only the major retailers in mind as the list would have extended too long otherwise. Something interesting to note is the range of industries that Amazon has affected. From Bed Bath and Beyond (NASDAQ:$BBBY) to Vitamin Shoppe (NYSE:$VSI), and sporting good stores such as Dick’s (NYSE:$DKS) and Foot Locker (NYSE:$FL), Amazon has disrupted a spectrum of retail players.

Hickey explains the list, “These are the companies we think are most ‘Amazonable… Prime day is on 7/11, and [7-Eleven is] probably the only store that isn’t Amazonable.”

As a way to attract new users to its Amazon Prime subscription, Hickey has noted that Prime Day is crucial to Amazon’s growth. In Hickey’s words, “It’s the business they are building up. It’s the recurring revenues.”

This only means more hardship for other retailers, as an Amazon Prime subscription combined with Whole Foods distribution stores will introduce fierce competition.

“In the U.S. retail environment, compared to other countries, there’s a ton of overcapacity in terms of square footage in stores,” Hickey said. “Until you see see some of the spare capacity worked off, it’s just not a good environment for the retail sector- and the fact that Amazon is coming after them.”

With share declines of 75% and 71%, Stein Mart (NASDAQ:$SMRT) and Rite-Aid respectively, are the worst performing stocks of the index. Runner ups consist of Fred’s (NASDAQ:$FRED), Tuesday Morning (NASDAQ:$TUES) and Ascena Retail (NASDAQ:$ASNA) which have all lost more than 60% in market valuation. Other retailers such as Genesco (NYSE:$GCO), Zumiez (NASDAQ:$ZUMZ) and Hibbet Sports (NASDAQ:$HIBB) are also down more than 40 percent this year thus far.

Surprisingly, Nordstrom (NYSE:$JWN), PriceSmart (NASDAQ:$PSMT), TJMaxx (NYSE:$TJX), Costco (NASDAQ:$COST), and Walgreens (NASDAQ:$WBA) have held their own, and managed to minimize declines to single digits.

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About the author: Josh is currently studying for a Bachelors in Business Management Organizational Studies at Western University, Ontario. He was awarded the Western Continuing Admission Scholarship in 2015. He is scheduled to graduate in 2109. Josh has worked as a business analyst, co-founded Master Badminton, a sporting goods website, and has written financial analysis, stock market updates, and informational articles on investing.