Is the ability to time the markets more of a data-driven science or a ‘gut – feeling’ art?
Even among those who don’t aspire to be the perfect market timer, many think they can call a top and act accordingly. It’s at these times when investors choose to sit on the sidelines and wait for a ‘perceived’ better opportunity to invest in the market.
Individual investors who focus their efforts on timing the market typically miss chances. For example, many investors have overlooked chances to benefit from buying the Basic Materials stocks at the first opportunity, by attempting to buy them during a pullback only to see these stocks accomplish new unsurpassed highs: US Gold Corp (USAU), Sappi Ltd. (SPPJY), Trecora Resources (TREC), Balchem Corporation (BCPC), Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (ACH)
Dread and exuberance regularly propel investors into merely ‘reacting’ to market volatility, rather than envisioning market trends.
Productive market timing requires three key parts: 1) A dependable sign for when to get in and out of stocks. 2) The ability to follow up on the sign rapidly and precisely. 3) The ability to be completely unemotional and trust in the signal no matter the current market environment.
The popular image of market timing is that it calls for making drastic, all-or-nothing moves at the precise, exact market top or bottom. There is a less well-known, rather simple market timing approach that has been used successfully by savvy investors like Warren Buffet for decades.
Rule 1: Never attempt and time tops and bottoms.
Surrendering the objective to time the tops and bottoms gives you the adaptability to benefit and increase your odds to secure profits over the long-term, even if your calls aren’t always right.
Rule 2: Don’t sell during small crashes – ride the storm out, or better yet, take advantage of the opportunity.
Warren Buffett has made a great part of his fortune due to this simple rule. He cautions not to sell during little crashes, and encourages enduring them by concentrating on the long haul.
There is a big difference between a stock market crash and small correction. If you own shares of a company that is well – established and has strong fundamentals, they are probably going to rebound to their pre – crash prices eventually, thereby rendering holding on a wise decision. Warren Buffett takes this idea one step further and often goes on a buying spree when markets turn, essentially buying additional shares of his top stock picks at a big discount and listening to his own advice, ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.’
A Risk Adjusted Trading Strategy Should be Followed for Your Retirement Assets
It’s just human that many surrender to emotions and attempt and game the framework by timing the market. But consider this: Nobel Laureate William Sharpe found in 1975 that a market timer would have to be accurate 74% of the time to beat a passive portfolio. Even a slight outperformance probably wouldn’t be worth the energy – and given that even the experts generally fail at it, market timing shouldn’t be your exclusive investing strategy of choice, especially using assets earmarked for your retirement.
Actively trading for alpha, outsized, short – term gains through market timing and other high – risk trading strategies is fine with a small portion of your investable assets, but for your longer – term retirement assets, a “risk -adjusted focused” investment solution generally makes more sense.
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