It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Autodesk (ADSK). Shares have lost about 5.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Autodesk due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let’s take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Autodesk Q4 Earnings Top Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y
Autodesk reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 non-GAAP earnings of $1.18 per share that beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.3%.
Moreover, the earnings figure increased 28.3% year over year driven by growth in subscription plan revenues, led by product subscription revenues.
Revenues of $1.03 billion beat the consensus mark by 3.1% and grew 15.6% year over year. At constant currency (cc), revenues were up 17%. The growth was driven by higher subscription revenues.
Autodesk benefited from the ongoing transition to cloud. The company witnessed increased usage of its cloud collaboration products due to the remote working wave throughout the quarter.
Top-Line Details
Subscription revenues (91.4% of revenues) increased 22.2% year over year to $950.3 million. Moreover, other revenues (5.6% of revenues) increased 39.8% to $58.7 million in the reported quarter.
However, maintenance revenues (2.9% of revenues) slumped 62.2% to $30.2 million.
Recurring revenues represented 94% of Autodesk’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 revenues. Net revenue retention rate was within 100% to 110%.
Geographically, revenues from the Americas (40% of revenues) increased 14% from the year-ago quarter to $415.8 million. Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) revenues (39.3% of revenues) increased 13.4% to $408.8 million. Revenues from Asia-Pacific (20.7% of revenues) grew 23.3% to $214.6 million.
Meanwhile, billings of $1.47 billion decreased 1% year over year in the reported quarter.
Product-wise Top-line Details
Autodesk offers primarily four product families, Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC), AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT, Manufacturing (MFG), and Media and Entertainment (M&E).
AEC (43.3% of revenues) revenues increased 18.1% year over year to $449.5 million. AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT (27.6% of revenues) revenues rose 10.9% to $286.5 million. MFG (22.7% of revenues) revenues increased 17% to $236.1 million.
M&E (5.7% of revenues) increased 13.8% to $59.5 million while other revenues (0.7% of revenues) increased 20.6% to $7.6 million.
Autodesk witnessed steady renewal rates during the reported quarter. Partial renewal rates remained relatively steady as well.
Operating Results
Non-GAAP gross margin expanded 50 basis points (bps) from the year-ago quarter to 92.8%.
Research & development and marketing & sales expenses as a percentage of revenues declined 40 bps and 160 bps, respectively while and general & administrative expenses expanded 100 bps year over year.
Non-GAAP operating expenses, as a percentage of revenues, contracted 100 bps from the year-ago quarter to 62.5%.
The lower operating expenses reflected disciplined cost management in the reported quarter. The company reduced travel and entertainment expense and monitored hiring rate and marketing spend amid the coronavirus-induced economic slowdown.
Autodesk reported non-GAAP operating income of $314.6 million compared with the year-ago quarter’s figure of $258.9 million.
Key Q4 Details
On Dec 16, Autodesk announced that more than 4,000 specialty contractors across all industry segments – from mechanical to earthwork, HVAC, concrete, interior buildouts and more – chose Autodesk Construction Cloud technology for their projects.
During the quarter, Autodesk announced a new set of products — Autodesk Build, Autodesk Quantify and Autodesk BIM Collaborate — for Autodesk Construction Cloud that further connect data, workflows and teams throughout the entire building lifecycle, from design to operations.
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow
As of Jan 31, 2021, Autodesk had cash and cash equivalents (including marketable securities) of $1.85 billion compared with $1.61 billion as of Oct 31, 2020.
Deferred revenues increased 12% to $3.36 billion. Unbilled deferred revenues at the end of the fiscal fourth quarter were $881 million.
Remaining performance obligations (RPO) totaled $4.24 billion, up 19% year over year. Current RPO totaled $2.74 billion, up 16%.
The company repurchased shares worth $156.5 million. Cash flow from operating activities was $657.6 million, compared with $361.1 million posted in the previous quarter. Free cash flow was $634.1 million, compared with the previous quarter’s figure of $340.2 million.
Guidance
For first-quarter fiscal 2022, Autodesk expects revenues between $955 million and $970 million. Non-GAAP earnings are anticipated to be in the range of 91 cents and 96 cents per share.
For fiscal 2022, Autodesk expects revenues between $4.26 billion and $4.34 billion, indicating growth of 13 year over year. Non-GAAP earnings are expected between $4.78 and $5.08 per share.
Billings are projected to be $4.85-$4.97 billion, implying an increase of 17 year over year.
Free cash flow is expected between $1.57 billion and $1.65 billion.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -24.82% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Autodesk has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren’t focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It’s no surprise Autodesk has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
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