Is the ability to time the markets more of a data-driven science or a ‘gut – feeling’ art?
In fact, even among long-term investors who don’t attempt to time the markets, being able to call the top of the market is a skill that many think they possess. This misguided confidence is often driving investors to sit on the sidelines and wait it out for better market opportunities.
Lost chances by those who attempt to time the market is a common mistake among those who trade their own accounts. How many traders have lost investing opportunities by choosing to wait for the Basic Materials stocks to correct or reach attractive entry levels? Only for them to continue to move higher and achieve new all-time highs: Balchem Corporation (BCPC), Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI), US Gold Corp (USAU), Trecora Resources (TREC), Sappi Ltd. (SPPJY)
Anxiety and eagerness regularly lead investors into psychological traps because most investors take cues from past market moves and trends instead of attempting to anticipate potential market moves.
Successful market timing requires three key ingredients: 1) A reliable signal to tell you when to get in and out of stocks (or bonds, gold or other types of investments). 2) The ability to interpret the signal correctly. 3) The discipline to act on it.
Many investors believe that market timing is a short-term investment strategy. There is a less known, more effective, longer-term market timing approach that has been used successfully by astute investors like Warren Buffet.
Rule 1: Why trying to time the tops and bottoms of the market is a dead end.
Surrendering the objective to time the tops and bottoms gives you the adaptability to benefit and increase your odds to secure profits over the long-term, even if your calls aren’t always right.
Rule 2: Make an effort not to sell in the midst of little crashes. Muster the courage to trust your gut and buy best in class stocks at a discount.
Warren Buffett has made a great part of his fortune due to this simple rule. He cautions not to sell amid little crashes and to instead endure the temporary hardship and profit by concentrating on the long haul.
There is a major distinction between a financial crash and a mild market reset. If you own shares of a company that is well – established and has strong fundamentals, they are probably going to rebound to their pre – crash prices eventually, thereby rendering holding on a wise decision. Warren Buffett takes this thought a notch higher and frequently goes on a buying binge when markets turn, purchasing additional shares of his favorite stocks at a major markdown and tuning in to his own recommendation of being greedy when others are scared, and being scared when others are greedy.
A Risk Adjusted Trading Strategy Should be Followed for Your Retirement Assets
It’s just human that many surrender to emotions and attempt and game the framework by timing the market. But consider this: Nobel Laureate William Sharpe found in 1975 that a market timer would have to be accurate 74% of the time to beat a passive portfolio. Even a slight outperformance probably wouldn’t be worth the energy – and given that even the experts generally fail at it, market timing shouldn’t be your exclusive investing strategy of choice, especially using assets earmarked for your retirement.
Actively trading for alpha, outsized, short – term gains through market timing and other high – risk trading strategies is fine with a small portion of your investable assets, but for your longer – term retirement assets, a “risk -adjusted focused” investment solution generally makes more sense.
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