According to PIRA Energy, it is very likely that United States crude oil exports will surpass 2 million barrels by the year 2020, reaching 2.25 million barrels per day. To put that into perspective, that’s more than what most OPEC members export. Last year, the U.S. average daily export rate was just 520,000 barrels per day, although in May, the average daily did reach 1.02 million barrels, after the 1-million-barrels per day mark was passed early in the year.
With a daily rate such as this, the United States will be able to position itself among the world’s top 10 exporters. Gary Ross, the global head of oil for PIRA Energy, told the Financial Times that “this is very bad news for OPEC.” To simplify, by 2020, the United States will become even more of an oil foe for OPEC than it already is, as the United States is the globe’s top consumer of the commodity with considerable market-swinging power.
PIRA also reported that oil export capacity along the Gulf Coast is roughly 2.7 million barrels per day, in 22 terminals. If all goes as planned, this should increase by another 600,000 barrels per day in new capacity that will come on stream by the end of 2018.
Right now, the main buyers of U.S. oil are Asian and European economies, though crude oil is also starting to be shipped to Latin America. As reported by Census Bureau, Canada was the biggest market of U.S. crude exports in May, taking in 372,000 barrels per day. Furthermore, U.S. oil exports to China sat at 147,000 barrels per day, and U.S. crude exports to the Netherlands came in at 108,000 barrels per day.
There are a number of global oil traders, including Trafigura, Vitol, and Mercuria, that are turning to U.S. shale oil, inking long-term supply deals, and purchasing assets to expand their presence in the shale sector – which is yet another sign that U.S. crude exports are on the path for a continual rise.
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